The Bay Area is facing its biggest threat to public transportation in decades. With a looming fiscal cliff, major transit agencies—including BART, Muni, Caltrain, and AC Transit—may soon have to make difficult decisions to close stations, reduce frequencies, and shorten hours of operation. The changes are stark and could mean that agencies like BART will have to close two of its lines and more than a dozen of its stations. Consequently, riders will wait dramatically longer for their trains, fares will increase by at least 30%, and they will have to switch trains more often to get to their final destination.
Failure to act now will mark the start of public transit’s slow demise in the Bay Area."
Greenbelt Alliance is endorsing a new transit funding measure in five Bay Area counties called Connect Bay Area, joining a powerful coalition of advocates to save the Bay Area’s public transit. We welcome the state’s new $590 million loan to transit agencies, but this is only a temporary solution. Connect Bay Area will secure long-term funding and ensure that our public transit can provide critical services to our communities.
The campaign is currently gathering signatures to qualify for the November 2026 ballot, and we need your support to sign the petition at an in-person event in your county!
Learn how you can support below:
How We Got Here
Funding for transit agencies in the Bay Area relies heavily on fares and local revenue sources, so when the COVID-19 pandemic hit and ridership plunged, a substantial amount of that funding disappeared. For a while, agencies were able to stay afloat due to the federal relief stimulus, but that has quickly dried up, and California has not stepped in to address those deficits. Without yearly State funding and with ridership only slowly recovering to pre-pandemic levels, agencies are not seeing the revenue needed to continue operating at full capacity.
To put this into perspective, here is what will happen in 2027 if we do not pass the transit measure:
- Red and Green lines will be phased down to just peak hours in January 2027. The Grey line will close at this time, too. The blue line will close in July 2027.
- 15 stations with the lowest ridership will close, including Millbrae and Warm Springs, by July 2027.
- 70% reduction in train hours and 25% reduction in system miles by July 2027.
- 30% fare increase in January 2027, and a 50% increase in July 2027.
- The agency will face a $355-$385 million budget deficit (30% of the operating budget)
- Without a funding pathway by mid-2028, BART may have to stop all operations. See more details here.
- There will be a 50% cut of Muni services
- There will be an elimination of fare discounts and pass programs for youth and seniors
- The agency will face a $322-$398 million budget deficit (25% of the operating budget)
- There will be a nearly 40% cut to services
- The agency will face a $51-$72 million budget deficit (10% of the operating budget)
- The agency will run 1 train per hour and cut all weekend service
- The agency will face a $65-$76 million budget deficit (42% of the operating budget)
These monumental disruptions to operations are direct consequences of the fiscal cliff. However, it does not account for the myriad ramifications down the road for managing traffic, tackling climate change, meeting our housing needs, and ensuring an affordable California for all.
“Fuming” with Greenhouse Gases
With 41% of California’s greenhouse gas emissions coming from the transportation sector, losing major parts of our public transit system will allow for even more cars on the road and weaken our ability to fight the climate crisis. Without BART, drivers can expect their commute to extend by 12 more hours per week and see traffic across the Bay Bridge surging by 73%. This means less time with family and friends doing the things we love.
In the long term, this may lead to worsening climate hazards, including droughts, flooding, and wildfires. More cars will also be a direct threat to our health and well-being, causing more air pollution, compromising air quality, and increasing respiratory-related illnesses. By maintaining our public transit system, we can reduce GHG emissions and avoid these catastrophic changes to our communities.
Communities Connected to Transit
Three words encapsulate our housing abundance strategy: transit-oriented development (TOD). In the last two decades, many urbanists have turned their attention to creating walkable, affordable, and resilient communities that are well-connected to the places where people work, study, and play. A cornerstone of this vision is built on the idea that we should promote more homes near our public transit corridors.
BART TOD projects like MacArthur Station provide residents access to the vibrant Temescal neighborhood, while allowing easy access to commute to downtown Oakland or San Francisco. Even new project proposals like the Caltrain-adjacent Hillsdale Reimagined in San Mateo demonstrate the durability of TOD in renovating underutilized buildings and turning them into lively community spaces.
That is why Greenbelt Alliance co-sponsored Senate Bill 79 in the California legislature, which makes it easier and faster to build homes near public transit. While SB 79 is now law, the risks of public transit’s fiscal cliff diminish the law’s application by making fewer sites viable for TOD upzoning. Other proposed TOD projects funded by transit agencies will likely be reevaluated, too. This could all delay much-needed affordable housing in the Bay Area and worsen the housing crisis.
How to Save Our Public Transit
In light of the fiscal cliff and its many consequences, communities and advocates have organized to create a new regional transportation ballot measure. Dubbed Connect Bay Area, the measure will create a ½ percent sales tax in Alameda, Contra Costa, San Mateo, and Santa Clara Counties; San Francisco County will have a 1-percent sales tax. Taxes collected from this measure will be used to fund the transit operations for BART, Muni, Caltrain, and AC Transit while also funding transit transformation improvements to safety, cleanliness, convenience, and seamless integration of transit services.
Last year, the measure passed its first hurdle as SB 63 and is now in its signature-gathering phase. By adding your name to the petition at one of our events, you will help us qualify for the 2026 November midterm election! Please continue staying connected to the campaign and we hope to see you at one of our events in the future.
